obniżka stóp a kurs EUR/PLN, USD/PLN

Today’s quarter-point reduction was expected by 11 out of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with 25 predicting no change and two forecasting a 50 basis point cut.

Czy może mi ktoś wyjaśnić, dlaczego jak RPP obniżyła w dniu dzisiejszym stopy procentowe o kolejne 0,25 pkt, złoty się umocnił?

Carry trade (ang. carry – przenosić, trade – handel) – strategia spekulacyjna polegająca na zadłużaniu się w walucie kraju o niskiej stopie procentowej, oraz lokowaniu tak uzyskanych środków w walutę kraju o wysokiej stopie. Według innej definicji, jest to zadłużanie się w walutach niskooprocentowanych i jednoczesne kupowanie instrumentów finansowych o potencjalnie wysokiej stopie zwrotu

While the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hypothesizes that the carry gains due to
the interest-rate differential is offset by a commensurate depreciation of the investment
currency, empirically the reverse holds, namely the investment currency appreciates a
little on average albeit with a low predictive R2 (see e.g. Fama (1984)). This violation of the UIP { often referred to as the "forward premium puzzle" {is precisely what makes the carry trade pro¯table on average. Another puzzling feature of currencies is that dramatic exchange rate movements occasionally happen without fundamental news announcements, e.g. the large depreciation of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on October 7th and 8th of 1998, depicted in Figure 1.1 This reflects the broader phenomenon that many abrupt asset price movements cannot be attributed to a fundamental news events, as documented by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers (1989) and
Fair (2002).

The U.S. dollar has seen some remarkable swings against major currencies recently. For example, over most of 2005, it gained nearly 18% against the yen and 13% against the euro, while between March and May 2006, it depreciated sharply against these currencies, losing almost 10% of its value. Many observers have related these swings to what is known as the carry trade. This is a strategy widely used by investors in international financial markets that is based on exploiting the existence of interest rate differentials across countries.

Stopa procentowa to nie jedyne kryterium przy doborze kraju do lokowania kapitalu