Bardzo dobry artykul,pisalem troche o tym w czwartek,ale bardzo zachecam do przeczytania ponizszego artykulu
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fi...Kto calego nie chce czytac, to troche waznych zdan ponizej. Koniec koncow- mozna grac na zwloke jak od prawie 2 lata Merkel gra i przeciagac wszystko,ale niestety czas leci a cena jest coraz wyzsza tej gry. Interes swoj kazdy jakis ma,jednak pewne granice zblizaja sie zbocza i albo ktos podejmie odpowiednie dzialania albo bedzie krach. Na wykresach czwartkowych ktore dodalem-mozna zobaczyc jak napiecie w Europie rosnie,to ze na gieldzie patrzac przez pryzmat zmian procentowych i na ostatnie tygodnie wzrostow tego nie widac,jednak na rynku miedzybankowym tak jak rowniez poprzez ceny i spready CDSow&obligacji.
EFSF i IMF nie maja amunicji, ma ja ECB-ale przeciwne sa(choc czy w rzeczywistosci ?) Niemcy w obawie o inflacje i niezaleznosc banku centralnego.
2 lata temu narzekano na FED i jego QE1 i QE 2,teraz wychodzi ze Europa nie ma wyjscia i musi zrobic podobnie-jednak czy zrobi? Wszystkim sie wydaje,ze tak bedzie a jak to czesto bywa gdy wszyscy mysla tak moze byc zupelnie odmienie i cos co teraz wydaje byc sie absurdalnym pomyslem lub idea ktorej nikt sie nie spodziewac,moze sie ona okazac prawdziwa i wejscw zycie zupelnie niespotykanie,nie wiadomo co kto ma w rekawie.
Jednak musimy pamietac,ze jest to gospodarka swiatowa i system finansowy to jeden organizm,dlatego dzialanie jakiekolwiek ono nie bedzie odczuje caly Swiat.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/inter...
W powyzszym linku-dlugi panstw,klikajac na dane panstwo mozna zobaczyc ile kto komu jest winny.quote]The problem is not going to go away. Among major European economies, a total of €1.1 trillion of debt will mature in 2012.[/quote]
Cytat:"This really is Europe's Lehman's moment and it is make or break," according to Danny Gabay, a former Bank of England economist and director at Fathom Consulting.
Cytat:For some economists, though, it's not all over for Italy. For a start, the country is not insolvent. According to the Italian Treasury, the book value of its assets is €1.8 trillion (£1.53 trillion) – barely less than its €1.9 trillion of debt. Of that, €45bn is tied up in listed companies such as oil group ENI and the utility Enel, €400bn in real estate and €140bn of gold in today's prices. The country has assets to sell. On top of that is the €8.5 trillion of net wealth held by Italy's households, which could also be crow-barred into supporting the economy.
On the other hand, there are its financing requirements. Next year, €220bn of debt matures and the IMF calculates the country will need another €150bn to finance its borrowing costs. Half the maturing debt is owned by domestic investors, so ought to be rolled over – leaving roughly €250bn of refinancing. It is that debt hurdle that has spooked the markets.
Cytat:Time is of the essence. According to Fabio Fois, economist at Barclays Capital, if Italy can use the time to demonstrate it is committed to reform, it can restore confidence and get its borrowing costs back down to levels that will allow the economy to outgrow its debt burden.
tutaj bardzo wazne
Cytat:In some ways, Italy is in pretty good shape. If you exclude the debt servicing costs, the government will take more in taxes this year than it spends, according to the IMF. Its primary surplus will be 0.5pc – better than Germany's, which is the only other major western economy to boast of a primary surplus. After paying the bill on its debts, though, the surplus turns into a 4pc deficit.
Cytat:Italy is deemed too big to fail, but yet it is also too big to bailout. It is not a peripheral eurozone country like Greece, it is the world's eighth largest economy. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the International Monetary Fund do not possess the firepower which is likely to be required, and the markets know it.
Cytat:The EFSF has been unable to convince investors not to sell off sovereign debt – illustrated by a bond auction this week in which the rescue fund was forced to buy its own bonds due to lack of outside demand. But the ECB could succeed where the EFSF failed, possessing the ability to print an unlimited amount of new money
Cytat:"Larger purchases would be seen as an unacceptable step into fiscal policy that would pose a serious threat to the Bank's independence," says Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics.
I plenta na zakonczenia
Cytat:"I can't imagine that if they were faced with a major financial collapse or the necessity of printing money [the ECB] wouldn't print money," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds Inc.
If the ECB does not act, Mr Draghi may find the eurozone's blood on his hands.